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HoF Predictions 2021... and Beyond


For those that don't know, my main baseball card collection is of National Baseball Hall of Fame members. I try to collect at least one card of every Hall member, and except for the elusive John Schuerholz and Frank Selee (cards are too expensive and/or there are no reprints I'm aware of), I have accomplished that goal. (I'm not counting National Baseball HoF Postcards.)

So it should come as no surprise that I look forward each year to see who the BBWAA is going to vote to be inducted in Cooperstown. It should also come as no surprise that I try to predict and prospect for cards of people that I think will be elected to the Hall in the future, so when they finally do get inducted I simply slide them from one binder to another. It's a rite of passage that I really look forward to.

This is my first such post where I predict who I think will be inducted in the next HoF class. I will also make some predictions for who I think will be inducted sometime in the future. 

2021 Prediction: Curt Schilling.

2005 Topps, Card #732.
(79.5 WAR; three years 20+ wins; two years 300+ SO; three time CYA runner-up; great post-season record)

This year, I feel fairly certain that Curt Schilling (9th year on the ballot) will be inducted as he had 70% of the votes last year (his 8th on the ballot). Also, last year Roger Clemens (61%) and Barry Bonds (60.7%) were the next highest vote getters, followed by Omar Vizquel (52.6%). No one else was above 36%.

I don't think current voters are ready yet to induct Clemens or Bonds, both of which are in their 9th year on the ballot. I think they will get in someday (see below), but it will be via a veteran's committee (or whatever they're called now).

Of this ballots first-year eligible players, only Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, and Toni Hunter have a lifetime WAR over 50. I don't consider any of them elite, and I don't think any will be inducted in their first year on the ballot, if ever.

Now if I was able to vote on the current ballot, I would vote for Schilling, and I would also vote for Andy Pettitte, Todd Helton, and Omar Vizquel. I don't consider any of them elite, but I do think they excelled as compared to their contemporaries, and I don't see any reason to delay their induction.

2009 Topps Allen & Ginter, Card #268.
That Pettitte stare was so intense!
(18-year 17-10 162 game average W-L record; and an amazing post-season record of 19-11 W-L, 276 IN, 183 SO) 

2019 Topps Archives, Card #175.
(12 years .300+ BA; .316/.414/.539 lifetime slash line)

1989 Donruss, Card #53.
(11 time GG at premium defensive position; 2877 lifetime hits)

My prediction of future HoFers by veterans committee:

2005 Topps All-Time Fan Favorites, Card #141.
(youngest GM ever; GM of the Red Sox when they won their first WS in 86 years; won a second WS with BoSox; was Pres. of Ops. for the Cubs when they won their first WS in 108 years)

1970 Topps - Scratch-Offs, Card #NNO.
(ROY; NL MVP; .292/.378/.534 lifetime slash line; 58.8 WAR)

2012 Topps Heritage, Card #258.
(manager of six 1st place finishes with two clubs, led Giants to three WS Championships)

2006 Topps, Card #595.
(manager of Epstein's Red Sox WS winners; manager of an Indians AL pennant winner; led the Indians to a 22-game win streak - the longest AL history)

1975 Hostess, Card #117.
(Very fine playing career; However, I think he'll go in as a manager. Won NL pennant as manager with Giants in 2002; manager of seven 1st place finishes with five clubs)

2020 Kreindler, Card #176.
(great ambassador of Negro League and ML Baseball)

1956 Topps, Card #125.
(spent 3 years in Negro Leagues before 17 MLB seasons; 50.2 WAR; nine time AS; three time GG; 17 year 162 game average of 100 runs, 16 HR, 90 RBI, .298/.389/.459 slash line)

1999 Fleer Tradition Update, Card #143.
(139.2 WAR; 7 time CYA)

1986 Topps Traded, Card #11T.
(162.8 WAR; 7 time MVP)

My HoF prediction of not-yet-eligible former MLB players:

2014 Topps Archives, Card #238.
(55.3 WAR; 541 HR; 1768 RBI; .286/.380/.552 slash line)

1998 Bowman - International, Card #123.
(93.6 WAR; 5xGG; 3166 H; 477 HR; 1707 RBI; .286/.339/.480 slash line)

2008 Topps Opening Day, Card #139.
(9 years in Japan Pacific League before 19 MLB seasons; 59.7 WAR; ROY; MVP; 10xGG; 7xHit leader; 2xBA leader; 3089 H; 509 SB; .311/.355/.402 slash line)

My prediction of active player future HoFers - No Doubters:

2020 Panini Diamond Kings - DK 206, Card #DK13.
(71.8 2020 WAR)

2020 Panini Diamond Kings - Artist's Palette, Card #AP-6.
(74.6 2020 WAR. In 9 full seasons, this guy has 3 MVPs and never finished worst than 5th place!)

2015 Topps Archives, Card #166.
(62.3 2020 WAR)

2002 Topps Opening Day, Card #5.
(100.7 2020 WAR)

2008 Topps Updates & Highlights, Card #UH240.
(69.6 2020 WAR)

2019 Tops Allen & Ginter, Card #112.
(69.6 2020 WAR)

My prediction of age 30-and-over active players with strong HoF cases:

2008 Topps National Baseball Card Day, Card #7.
(62.1 2020 WAR)

2013 Topps - Blue, Card #128.
(41.8 2020 WAR)

2009 Fleer, Card #95.
(40.4 2020 WAR)

2006 Topps, Card #55.
(55.3 2020 WAR)

2014 Topps The Future is Now, Card #FN-53.
(38.8 2020 WAR)

My prediction of age 30-and-under active players on the right track for the HoF:

2019 Christian Yelich Panini Donruss Name Variation, Card #190.
(32.3 2020 WAR)

2019 Panini Diamond Kings - DK 205, Card #205-19.
(9.7 2020 WAR)

2019 Panini Diamond Kings - 2004 DK Retro Set, Card #DK04-FL.
(28.7 2020 WAR)

2012 Bowman Platinum, Card #56.
(33.7 2020 WAR)

2019 Topps, Card #50.
(45.4 2020 WAR)

2019 Topps Heritage New Age Performers, Card #NAP-22.
(39.1 2020 WAR)

2019 Panini Diamond King, Card #38.
(36.5 2020 WAR)

2010 Choice, Card #01.
(33.3 2020 WAR)

2019 Topps Heritage, Card #500.
(12.1 2020 WAR)

My HoF prediction, if it weren't for steroids - No Doubters:

2011 Topps, Card #155.
(117.5 WAR)

2008 Topps Chrome, Card #60.
(69.3 WAR)

My HoF prediction, if it weren't for gambling - No Doubters:

1964 Topps, Card #125.
(79.7 WAR)

2002 Joe Jackson Statue Dedication - Greenville, S.C., Card #NNO.
(62.1 WAR)

Wow! That was a lot of fun looking up the statistics for so many great players!

So clearly there's a whole lot of speculation here, and a bit of favoritism. Time will judge, and there will be some hits and some misses.

Questions:

    1. Who do you think will be enshrined that I didn't mention, either by the BBWAA or the "veteran's committee" (Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones, Sammy Sosa, Bobby Abreau, Joe Madden, Jim Leyland, other)?

    2. Who do you think will NOT be enshrined that I predicted will be enshrined?

    3. What's your favorite card shown?

My favorite card: The 1964 Topps Pete Rose card is easily my favorite card from this group. Rose was my favorite player when I was a kid because of his hustle. The $90 I spent on that card (before his gambling issue) is easily double what I have ever spent on any card before or since.

Thanks for visiting!

CinciCuse Bill

Comments

  1. I think Sabathia will get in. I don’t think you listed him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good call. I would not be surprised if CC got in. For the record, I have saved a slew of his cards just in case :)

      Delete
  2. I had a long day... and don't have the energy to think about who will and will not get in, so I'll trust your picks. That being said... I do love the 1964 Topps Rose and the 2008 Update Kershaw. Those are my two favorites from this post.

    ReplyDelete

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